Rewriting the American Dream of home ownership
- The share of renters who believe that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4%, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.
- There’s not a lot of good news on the renting front, either. Respondents expect rental costs to increase by 9.7% over the next year.
The dream of home ownership has gotten even further away for renters, with higher housing costs and elevated interest rates standing in the way of the American housing dream, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released Monday.
The share of renters as of February who possess hopes of “residential mobility,” or the belief from renters that they one day will be able to afford a home, fell to a record low 13.4% in the central bank’s annual housing survey for 2024.
Pessimism about future prospects comes amid a confluence of factors conspiring against the likelihood of renters being able to transition to home ownership.
For one, some 74.2% of renters viewed obtaining a mortgage as somewhat or very difficult, which the New York Fed said has “deteriorated substantially” from the 66.5% level in 2023 and 63.1% in 2022.
Moreover, mortgage rates have remained high by historical standards. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage now carries an average 7.22% borrowing rate, the highest since late-November 2023, according to Freddie Mac.
Housing affordability has improved little, with the median price in February at $388,700, the highest since November, according to the National Association of Realtors. The NAR’s housing affordability index was at 103 in February, down slightly from January but still at elevated levels with average monthly housing payments at $2,040.
Despite prospects for the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of 2024, respondents think mortgage rates are only going to go higher. The outlook for a year from now is that borrowing costs will be 8.7%, and 9.7% in three years, both survey records.
There’s not a lot of good news on the renting front, either. Respondents expect rental costs to increase by 9.7% over the next year, up 1.5 percentage points from last year’s survey and the second-highest in series history.
The results come a week after the Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold benchmark interest rates steady while indicating that there has been “a lack of further progress” in its efforts to bring the annual inflation rate back down to 2%.
Futures market pricing is indicating that the Fed will begin lowering rates in September, with a another cut likely to come in December.
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Rewriting the American Dream of home ownership
Since the birth of our nation, homeownership has always been considered a major piece of the American Dream. As Frederick Peters reports in Forbes:
“The idea of a place of one’s own drives the American story. We became a nation out of a desire to slip the bonds of Europe, which was still in many respects a collection of feudal societies. Old rich families, or the church, owned all the land and, with few exceptions, everyone else was a tenant. The magic of America lay not only in its sense of opportunity, but also in the belief that life could in every way be shaped by the individual. People traveled here not just for religious freedom, but because in America anything seemed possible.”
Additionally, a research paper released just prior to the shelter-in-place orders issued last year concludes:
“Homeownership is undeniably the cornerstone of the American Dream, and is inseparable from our national ethos that, through hard work, every American should have opportunities for prosperity and success. It is the stability and wealth creation that homeownership provides that represents the primary mechanism through which many American families are able to achieve upward socioeconomic mobility and greater opportunities for their children.”
Has the past year changed the American view on homeownership?
Definitely not. A survey of prospective homebuyers released by realtor.com last week reveals that becoming a homeowner is still the main reason this year’s first-time homebuyers want to purchase a home. When asked why they want to buy, three of the top four responses center on the financial benefits of owning a home. The top four reasons for buying are:
- 59% – “I want to be a homeowner”
- 33% – “I want to live in a space that I can invest in improving”
- 31% – “I need more space”
- 22% – “I want to build equity”
Millennials believe most strongly in homeownership.
The survey also reports that 62% of millennials say a desire to be a homeowner is the main reason they’re buying a home. This contradicts the thinking of some experts who had believed millennials were going to be the first “renter generation” in our nation’s history.
While reporting on the survey, George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, said:
“Americans, even millennials who many thought would never buy, have a strong preference for homeownership for the same reasons many generations before them have — to invest in a place of their own and in their communities, and to build a solid financial foundation for themselves and their families.”
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist for First American, also addresses millennial homeownership:
“Millennials have delayed marriage and having children in favor of investing in education, pushing marriage and family formation to their early-to-mid thirties, compared with previous generations, who primarily made these lifestyle choices in their twenties…Delayed lifestyle choices delay the desire for homeownership.”
Kushi goes on to explain:
“As more millennials get married and form families, millennials remain poised to transform the housing market. In fact, the housing market is already experiencing the earliest gusts of the tailwind.”
Boston Real Estate and the Bottom Line
As it always has been and very likely always will be, homeownership continues to be a major component in every generation’s pursuit of the American Dream.
Here’s a good article looking at why so many aren’t buying homes when prices and mortgage rates are so low. There are sound economic and market explanations. But there’s also the issue of attitudes:
Consumer confidence in housing is still in the basement, especially for younger Americans, who make up 46 percent of the rental market, according to Fannie Mae. Younger Americans not only have the highest unemployment rate, but they also don’t have the cash for today’s higher down payments, and in many cases they’ve seen their parents lose massive amounts of home equity. Fannie Mae’s survey found that attitudes played a much bigger role in the decision to buy for some, while demographics played higher for others, and home values, believe it or not, played a very small role
They say it could take a long time for the average American investor to forgive and forget the Wall Street shenanigans that led to the financial crisis — and that led to a fall off in people investing in stocks. Let’s hope the same attitude isn’t extended to home ownership. But who can blame young people after what they’ve seen?
