Byline: John Ford Boston condo for sale broker.
Have you heard about the silver housing glacier?
Have you ever heard the term “Silver Tsunami” and wondered what it’s all about? If so, that might be because there’s been lot of talk about it online recently. Let’s dive into what it is and why it won’t drastically impact the housing market.
What Does Silver Tsunami Mean for the Boston Condo for Sale Market?
A recent article from HousingWire calls it:
“. . . a colloquialism referring to aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging . . .”
The thought is that as baby boomers grow older, a significant number will start downsizing their homes. Considering how large that generation is, if these moves happened in a big wave, it would affect the housing market by causing a significant uptick in the number of larger homes for sale. That influx of homes coming onto the market would impact the balance of supply and demand and more.
The concept makes sense in theory, but will it happen? And if so, when?
Why It Won’t Have a Huge Impact on the Housing Market in 2024
Experts say, so far, a silver tsunami hasn’t happened – and it probably won’t anytime soon. According to that same article from HousingWire:
“. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon.”
Here’s just one reason why. Many baby boomers don’t want to move. Data from the AARP shows over half of the surveyed adults ages 65 and up plan to stay put and age in place in their current home rather than move (see chart below):
Clearly, not every baby boomer is planning to sell or move – and even those who do won’t do it all at once. Instead, it will be more gradual, happening slowly over time. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.”
Boston Condos and the Bottom Line
If you’re worried about a Silver Tsunami shaking up the housing market, don’t be. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be gradual over many years. Fleming sums it up best:
“Demographic trends, they don’t tsunami. They trickle.”
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Have you heard about the silver housing glacier?
During the Yahoo Finance Invest Conference, Meredith Whitney, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis and became known as “the Oracle of Wall Street,” said that housing prices will fall in 2024 due to a “silver tsunami” of baby boomers who are expected to downsize in the coming years.
More than 30 million units of housing are expected to be brought onto the market as 51% of people over 50, who own more than 70% of U.S. homes, downsize to smaller homes.
It’s been a challenging time for hopeful homebuyers amid soaring prices and mortgage rates, but a little bit of good news might be around the corner.
Highlighting estimates from AARP, Whitney said that over 51% of individuals aged 50 and above, who own more than 70% of U.S. homes, are projected to move into smaller residences. This downsizing trend could result in over 30 million units of housing being brought onto the market.
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They calculated that baby boomers provided 4.41 million of the 7.74 million homes for sale in 2019 (57%). it’s likely that the percentage of estate sales will rise dramatically –
- “Some estimates suggest that one-quarter of current owner-occupied homes will come on the market by 2040, as older Americans transition out of owner-occupied housing and eventually die.”
Silver Housing Glacier
Complicating the flow, is the amount of surviving spouses that stay in the home. The red band in the graph above looks like it’s around 1/3 of the total number of deaths of homeowners, which means we really need to wait until BOTH boomers die before seeing those homes get into the supply of homes for sale.
This is going to take decades to sort out! – I’ll be retired by then
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The baby boomers will be riding into the sunset in the next few decades, leaving behind a surplus of houses.
But a study by the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted the impact of the “Silver Tsunami” will be more glacial and easily absorbed by the market.
Edward Seiler, the institute’s executive director and the MBA’s assistant vice president for housing economics, said the study shows a detailed picture of America’s aging population and its effect on the housing market.
“The impact from baby boomers exiting their homes is not insignificant but will happen over a few decades without significantly disrupting the housing market,” Seiler said.
Findings from the report included:
- “Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, boomer homeowners numbered 32 million and represented almost 41% of all homeowners.”
- “The baby boomers eventually will die. Their housing will become available for others or other uses.”
- “Some estimates suggest that one-quarter of current owner-occupied homes will come on the market by 2040, as older Americans transition out of owner-occupied housing and eventually die.”
- “Projected deaths rise steadily as the baby boomers age and eventually die, then plateau around 2045. By 2060, the tail end of the baby boom will be 95 or older.”
- “Overall, housing supply and demand shifts from changing demographics are slow moving and highly predictable, which suggests that there will not be measurable effects on house price growth from population aging and mortality.”
- “Over the next decade … most of the adjustment to aging and mortality will be through a reduction in the growth of new housing and some softness in the rental market.”
