Byline – John Ford Boston Beacon Hill Condo Broker 137 Charles St. Boston, MA 02114
Boston condo for sale market: Low inventory, unaffordability, will the Israeli conflict be the last straw?
Boston Condos for Sale and Rent
Boston condo for sale market: Low inventory, unaffordability, will the Israeli conflict be the last straw?
How prepared is the U.S. housing market for unpredictable black swan events?
The 2008 financial crisis gets thrown onto the list, but it was a gray swan that was predictable – and widely discussed for 2-3 years in advance. Things could have been done to avert that crisis – like stopping Angelo the CEO of Countrywide’s pursuit of bad home loans while he was quietly dumping $300,000,000+ in stocks.
Boston condo for sale market and the Black Swan impact
The Hamas uprising in Israel will be considered a black swan event, and will likely capture the attention of everyone world-wide for the foreseeable future. It will be a distraction like the Persian Gulf War when watching rockets and missiles was a major event on TV, or like the OJ trial.
Both of those events happened while experiencing a tough U.S. real estate markets, and that’s probably not a coincidence – major distractions can impact the economy including our Boston condo for sale market. But at least they were both of those were helped by being in a period of declining interest-rates.
In the low-inventory/unaffordability era, will the Israeli conflict be the last straw?
I think we can expect the rest of this year to be dormant – both Boston condominium buyers and sellers must be looking for any reason to take a breather, and the Hamas massacre will provide a good reason to sit out the next three months. After 9/11, the local market rested for a few weeks but the conditions had been so red hot in 2001 that it got back on track quickly.
There will be Boston home buyers who really need to move, and/or they find the perfect property at the perfect price – which is no small feat. There will be sellers who need to sell and can’t wait until 2024 – or don’t want to take the chance on the market getting worse.
The big Boston condo for sale question
Will we see Boston condo for sale discounts?
Source: WSJ
