Mass. housing starts drop or rise?
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Mass. housing starts drop or rise?
Expect a drop, here’s why:
Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes dropped to the lowest level since January, as builders contend with a market dominated by high mortgage rates and costs for financing.
The monthly National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped four points to 40 in October, and September’s read was revised down one point. Anything below 50 is considered negative. This marks the third straight monthly decline in builder confidence.
New residential construction was down across the board in January, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said in a press release.
Single-family housing starts fell 5.6% from December’s revised estimate to 1,116,000, while multifamily starts slid 2.1% to 510,000.
Altogether, the combined construction pace of single-family homes and buildings with five or more units was down 4.1% month over month, at 1,638,000 units. Starts were up 0.8% compared to a year ago.
“Homebuilder confidence edged lower in February for the second month in a row, as builders continue to face supply chain disruptions, price increases and concerns that declining affordability will price out some potential buyers,” First American deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi said. “While builder sentiment fell in February, it remains positive and high from a historical perspective because demand for housing remains strong, and existing supply sits at record lows. This dynamic is supportive of new construction.”
The seasonally adjusted annual rate for privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits was at 1,899,000 in January, up 0.7% from December and 0.8% compared to a year earlier.
“The number of single-family homes authorized, but not started, increased 5.6% month over month and 32.5% year over year,” Kushi said. “This indicates that builders are focusing on finishing existing projects, rather than starting new ones, as the lack of material availability and rising costs of building materials contribute to delays.”
Privately owned housing completions hit an annual rate of 1,246,000 in January, down 5.2% from December and 6.2% from a year earlier.
By region, single-family new construction varied across the U.S. On a month-over-month basis, it jumped 17.7% in the West and gained 2.6% in the Northeast, while plunging 37.7% in the Midwest and declining 2% in the South.
“Despite a somewhat slower start to 2022, builders have continued to make progress on their backlog of homes, and consumer demand continues to outpace supply,” RCLCO Real Estate Consulting principal Kelly Mangold said. “There is still reason to believe that 2022 will be another strong year for the housing market, and if conditions remain favorable, the market may support another period of sustained growth.”
Mass. housing starts drop or rise?
New home construction fell modestly, 1.6% in September from the prior month, but the year-to-date activity is solidly higher by 17% compared to 2020 and by 23% compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019. More housing inventory will therefore steadily emerge. Newly constructed homes are generally larger in size and more expensive than existing homes, and not geared toward first-time buyers. Nonetheless, more supply of these homes allows trade-up buyers to make their move and in the process place their previous homes on the market. In addition to construction, more inventory will appear as the mortgage forbearance program is winding down. The current mortgage default rate of at least three months is running high at 3.5% compared to less than 1% before the pandemic. However, foreclosures have been at historic lows so far due to the forbearance support. The default rate will certainly fall as long as the economy continues to generate jobs, but the end of the federal support program inevitably means some homeowners will need to sell. This will be another source of housing inventory.
The listing count across the country is still below one year ago and near record lows. Based on increased home construction and from the ending of the mortgage forbearance program, more inventory will appear next year compared to this year.
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Updated: Boston Real Estate Blog 2021
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Boston Condos for Sale
National housing starts drop
Boston Condos for Sale
Nationally single-family housing starts are down 13.4%
Mass. housing starts drop or rise?
Boston Condos for Sale
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Boston Condos for Sale
In today’s Boston real estate market, everyone seems to be searching for signs that the Boston condo for sale market is recovery soon. Many experts agree that it may actually already be in motion or will be starting by the 3rd quarter of this year. With the housing market positioned to lead the way out of this recession, builder confidence might be a bright spark that gets the recovery fire started. The construction of a new Boston high rise condo buildings coming right around the corner in the Seaport District is a huge part of that effort, and it may drive your opportunity to make a move this year.
According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):
“New home sales jumped in May, as housing demand was supported by low interest rates, a renewed household focus on housing, and rising demand in lower-density markets. Census and HUD estimated new home sales in May at a 676,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, a 17% gain over April.”
In addition, builder confidence is also rising, opening up opportunities for newly constructed homes in the market. The NAHB also notes:
“In a sign that housing stands poised to lead a post-pandemic economic recovery, builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes jumped 21 points to 58 in June, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Any reading above 50 indicates a positive market.”
As noted above, this upward trend is supported by builders reporting an increase in demand for single-family homes in suburban neighborhoods with lower-density populations, a result of the COVID-19 health crisis.
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Moreover, the most recent monthly New Residential Construction Report from the U.S. Census indicates that authorized building permits for new residential construction increased by 14.4% month-over-month from April to May, and housing starts were also up 4.3% over the same time period. (See graph below): Although housing permits and starts are both considerably lower than they were at this time last year, indicating the new construction market is still working on building its way back up, the trends are moving in the right direction when it comes to having an impact on the U.S. economy. They’re also poised to create the much-needed new homes for Americans to purchase in a time when inventory is so scarce.
Housing positioned to lead the way:
“As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward…Inventory is tight, mortgage applications are increasing, interest rates are low and confidence is rising. And buyer traffic more than doubled in one month even as builders report growing online and phone inquiries stemming from the outbreak.”
The gap between homes to buy and the high demand from purchasers may be narrowed by new construction, and the data shows that these homes are on their way into the housing market.
So, if you’ve debated whether or not to sell your house this year because you’re not sure where to move, a newly-built home – designed to your specific liking – may be your answer.
Boston Real Estate and the Bottom Line
With new residential construction right around the corner, you can feel confident about selling your house and having a place to move into. Maybe it’s time to finally design the home you’ve always wanted. Let’s connect today to discuss selling your house while demand from eager buyers is high.
