Last month, the Federal Reserve received the kind of data it’s been looking for.

Inflation cooled and unemployment rose — a sign the jobs market may be normalizing.

Markets believe the indicators will persuade the central bank to finally cut interest rates.

The best-case scenario for Boston condo for sale borrowers and the economy a “more normal rate-cutting cycle.” What is already priced into the market: 100 basis points of cuts by year end.

In the “normal” scenario, the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points each quarter — 25 basis points per meeting. In the second quarter of 2025 rates would fall to 3.75 percent, and 1.75 percent a year later.

That’s a rosy outcome for borrowers.

The worst outcome for borrowers would be if the Fed holds to its “higher-for-longer” strategy.

In that reality, inflation stays sticky, employment high, the economy strong, keeping Fed Chair Jay Powell conservative with cuts. Rates are pared to 4.5 percent in mid-2025 and 3.5 percent by mid-2026.

Another possible scenario is a double-edged sword.

Should the economy weather some sort of shock, cuts as high as 100 basis points per quarter — 50 basis points at each Fed meeting — “would be quite plausible.” In that instance, the Fed funds rate drops to 0.25 percent by the second quarter of 2026.

For the Boston condo for sale market borrowers, such a steep reduction would be a lifesaver.

But it would come with bad news, too. Such aggressive cuts would only happen if the Fed were reacting to a possible recession.

The bottom line: The next three months are pivotal for the Boston condo for sale market.

The Fed’s next steps are still a big unknown. It’s possible Powell will give more insight this week at the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. At least, economists are hoping for that.