A word on housing starts
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Housing starts plunge in May amid uncertain economic conditions
A word on housing starts
New single-family home construction swung back to positive territory in September after an August slump, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said in a press release.
Specifically, single-family homes were built at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000, up 3.2% from 933,000 in August and up 8.6% from 887,000 in September 2022. Multifamily residential starts, meanwhile, surged 17.1% from August to 383,000, which is 31.5% below the year-ago level of 559,000.
Altogether, housing starts, which include multifamily and single-family residences, rose 7% to 1,358,000 from 1,269,000 in August. Year over year, however, starts were down 7.2% from September 2022’s pace of 1,463,000.
Meanwhile, single-family permits, a leading indicator of future new-home supply, rose 1.8% month over month and 11.6% year over year to 965,000 units, while single-family completions rose 5.3% month over month but fell 4.8% year over year to an annual rate of 998,000.
“Higher single-family permits are a sign of cautious optimism,” First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi said. “Builders have benefited from the lack of resale inventory and from their ability to use incentives, such as mortgage rate buydowns, to entice buyers off the sidelines. Builders have a huge competitive advantage over the resale market in this way.”
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New residential construction dropped 14.4% in May, as single-family starts fell for the third month in a row, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said in a press release.
New construction of single-family homes dropped 9.2% from April’s revised estimate to 1,051,000, while multifamily starts plunged 26.8% to 469,000. On a yearly basis, construction was down as well, with single-family starts falling 5.3% and multifamily dipping 3.3%.
Altogether, the combined construction pace of single-family homes and buildings with five or more units was down 3.5% year over year, at 1,549,000 units.
“Uncertainty around quickly changing economic conditions has caused sentiment in the building industry to falter, and housing starts slowed in reaction to these factors, as well as in light of persistent supply-chain issues,” RCLCO Real Estate Consulting principal Kelly Mangold said. “However, the job market continues to perform strongly, and millennials continue to move into family-formation years, indicating that there is likely still pent-up demand for housing — though some may be taking a more ‘wait-and-see’ stance until conditions settle down.”
There was good news on the new-home completion front, however. Privately-owned housing completions hit an annual rate of 1,465,000 in May, 9.1% higher than April and 9.3% above the previous year.
“The growth in completions means more homes on the market in the short-term, offering some immediate relief in alleviating chronic housing supply shortages,” First American Financial deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi said. “Builders are responding to the decline in affordability and cooling demand by building less, but a slowdown in construction is concerning because the U.S. continues to face a housing shortage. We need more homes, not less.”
The seasonally adjusted annual rate for privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits was at 1,695,000 in May, down 7% from April and up 0.2% from a year earlier.
By region, single-family new home construction varied widely across the U.S. On a month-over-month basis, it fell 20.7% and 17.8% in the South and West, respectively, but rose 14.6% and 1.9% in the Northeast and Midwest.
Updated: Boston Real Estate Blog 2023
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