I missed this when it first came out. Good data.
Otis & Ahearn has published a report compiling 3rd quarter 2006 sales data for each of Boston’s downtown neighborhoods (sorry, Allston/Brighton!). They have also compared this sales information to prior years’ results.
How do things look to them?
Absorption (sales volume), YTD, 2006, compared to 2005 and 2004
2006: $1,689,091,513
2005: $1,981,135,317
2004: $1,985,838,223
# of Sales Transactions, YTD, 2006, compared to 2005 and 2004
2006: 2,970
2005: 3,338
2004: 3,646
Although less than 2005 and 2004, sales and dollar volume are greater than 2003, and all prior years.
2006 figures do not include any sales at 500 Atlantic, 360 Newbury, any under agreements (not closed sales) or Folio deals made at the auction.
2006 figures do not include any sales at Mandarin and Battery Wharf, which will close post-2006.
Analysis of total transactions, sales absorption, and average sales price.
The trend shows:
* Continued upward pressure on average unit price
* Values in 2006 trending 11.24% above 2004
* The perceived “drop off” from 2005 to 2006 YTD in average sales price is only due to the tapering off of sales in One Charles during 2006 and limited lift to the average price during 2006 versus 2005 and 2004
* Analogously there will be a big jump in transactions, absorption, and average unit price in the Waterfront for year-end 2006 versus prior years with the 100M+ of closings at 500 Atlantic.
* The YTD end 3Q year to year, neighborhood to neighborhood comparisons demonstrate remarkable consistency and stability (see attached spreadsheet)
* The substantial new development activity spread across many neighborhoods once completed settles into fairly narrow / consistent ranges in percentages of transactions and market share
Transactions – Absorption – Average Price
2003 – 612 – 442,919,788 – $723,725
2004 – 709 – 549,144,568 – $774,533
2005 – 659 – 604,938,225 – $917,633
2006 3Q YTD – 432 – 372,126,700 – $861,404
Data is (c) Otis & Ahearn
More information: Boston Downtown Condominium Report Third Quarter 2006, Otis & Ahearn
