This is a good article, from the
Washington Post. It’s about real estate in the Washington DC area, but the points it makes
are relevant to us here, in Boston, as well. It pretty much says what everyone else is saying
(parts of which I don’t agree with, by the way) – that the real estate market seems to be
over-heated in certain areas (West and East coasts), that rising interest rates will mean a cooler
real estate market, but also that changing demographics and a limited number of properties
available for sale may lead to a slower market, but no outright crash.
In
Real Estate Fever, More Signs of Sickness
Some Economists Warn of Housing
Bubble
By Daniela Deane
Although there are no
official government tallies yet on how much real estate prices have gone up in the Washington area
this spring, local real estate agents and builders estimate that prices may have risen about 15
percent just since the beginning of this year. And that’s on top of the 21 percent they rose last
year, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, a federal agency that tracks
sale prices. Over five years, according to the agency, prices here have risen 89
percent.
For homeowners, those increases have meant a rapid rise in wealth,
at least on paper, and higher property tax bills. But would-be buyers such as Marshman have found
that they have to stretch their budgets more than they ever imagined. Homeowners who believed that
by now they would be able to trade up to bigger, better houses find themselves stuck in what were
supposed to be starter homes. That means they don’t sell, further tightening the supply of houses
available.
There are signs that things could be getting out of whack,
prompting some economists to warn that the real estate market in at least some parts of the country
is in a condition much like the stock market bubble of the late 1990s.
Other
economists, however, say rising house values in many metropolitan areas, including Washington, are
supported by changing demographics, job creation and still-attractive mortgage rates. Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has said the central bank does not think there’s a national
problem.
Among the symptoms that some say point to a bubble: a widening gap
between rental and ownership costs, a spike in the number of investors rather than occupants
buying, and a ever-tighter affordability squeeze. Much of the boom in recent years has been
sustained by low interest rates, which kept monthly payments down even as purchase prices rose. But
the consensus among economists is that interest rates will rise at least a little this
year.
Link: In
Real Estate Fever, More Signs of Sickness (washingtonpost.com)
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Updated: December 2017