12 Responses to “Snapshot: South End listings, 2005-2008” »»

1. Hard rain
   Comment by Hard rain | 02/24/08 at 1:07 pm

   “People just won’t list if they can’t get their price”

   John,

   Could you please back your claim with facts/data…

   Using Zip Realty, one finds 413 properties for sale in the South End (they must have a broader definition). 39 of which have been on the market for over 200 days. Apparently these folks didn’t get your “People price their properties to sell, not to sit” memo…..

2. John A Keith
   Comment by John A Keith | 02/24/08 at 1:25 pm

   Those are good questions … I suggest asking your Zip Realty agent.

3. John A Keith
   Comment by John A Keith | 02/24/08 at 2:12 pm

   Most owners only list their properties if they wish to sell - doesn’t that make sense, obviously? And, if they wish to sell, they will list their properties at prices the market will support. A few will try out the market, but, really, who has the time or patience to do so? No agent would take a listing if it wasn’t likely to sell, not in this market, not in any market.

   Yes, in any market, some people will just list their properties - in the hot market of years past, people would put their properties up at inflated prices just to see if they could get bites. But, the number of people who do so are so small as to be irrelevant to averages and medians.

   I don’t know where Zip Realty gets their 413 number - it seems to be incorrect. They pull their data from MLSPIN, just as I do. I don’t think they include FSBOs or anything else; even if they did, it wouldn’t make up the 200 unit difference. Neither would including single-family homes. My guess? They are reporting incorrectly, and/or haven’t done a good data scrub.

   I counted 217 condos for sale in the “South End”, according to MLSPIN.

   Here is the breakdown, by time on market:

   1-30 days: 66
   30-60 days: 28
   60-90 days: 11
   90-120 days: 19
   120-150 days: 26
   150-180 days: 18
   180-210 days: 3
   210-240 days: 7
   240-270 days: 7

   I also included the following in the 217 total - the average days on market of all South End listings is skewed higher by the following properties:

   255 Northampton (The Modern): 8 listings, 165-644 days
   21 Father Gilday (Penmark): 9 listings, 256-363 days
   303 Columbus (Bryant): 6 listings, 444 days
   7 Warren (D4): 6 listings, 246-472 days
   700 Harrison: 3 listings, 882 days

   Many times, developers will put their properties in MLS upon groundbreaking, even though it will be years before the units will be ready for occupancy.

   For many of these developments, there are only sample listings in MLS; one of each type and in each price range, perhaps. The Modern and 7 Warren, however, are all units left for sale.

   As anyone with a basic knowledge of math can see, those old listings are throwing off the average days on market.

   But, even including those listings, the table of days on market shows that 30% of all listings are under 30 days, 43% are under 60 days, 48% are under 90 days, 57% are under 120 days, and 69% are under 150 days.

   My totals do not include any “resetting” listings - these are the actual # of days on market, not adjusted by any cancel / relist funny business.

4. anon
   Comment by anon | 02/24/08 at 9:21 pm

   Hi John,

   Thanks for putting these numbers together. Good news for the South End.

   However, from your additional comments, I wonder if MLSPIN is under counting units for sell in new projects. For example, MLSPIN only has 9 units for sale at Penmark. However, from property tax and Registry of Deeds records it looks like only 11 units out of about 50 units have been sold. (Only 11 units ouch!!!). Shouldn’t there be 40+ units for sale at Penmark?

   At Penny Savings Bank, 9 units out of 23 have been sold according to public records. What are MLSPIN numbers for PSB?

5. John A Keith
   Comment by John A Keith | 02/24/08 at 10:01 pm

   Yes, anon, MLSPIN does not include the developer-direct sales in developments such as Penmark and PSB. Also not included in MLSPIN are the units at The 1850, The Bryant, 700 Harrison, The Bryant, and 285 Columbus.

   To clarify, this is nothing new. It’s common for developers to skip MLSPIN. Whether or not it’s to their benefit, is an open question.

6. Anon
   Comment by Anon | 02/25/08 at 7:08 am

   Hi John,

   Thanks for the clarification.

   If developer-direct sales are included in your figures, isn’t South End condo inventories at record levels? It use to be that most developments were nearly pre-sold before they were complete. This no longer appears to be true.

   Also any idea what’s going on at Penmark? Did they really only sell 20% of their units after being open for more than a year?

7. John A Keith
   Comment by John A Keith | 02/25/08 at 10:38 am

   Hi.

   I don’t think adding the developer-direct units would push the # of for sales to a record level.

   By the way, I shouldn’t have included The Bryant and 285 Columbus units, since those buildings aren’t even completed yet - yes, they are “available”, but if you use that criteria, so is Columbus Center and The Clarendon.

   To get a complete picture of the state of the market, yes, you should include them.

   I don’t know if it was true that developments were often sold-out before they were completed. We didn’t have many major projects built during the boom years, so it’s hard to know. I don’t think Willkes Passage or Rollins Sq were sold out before completion. That may have been marketing PR.

   I don’t think inventory levels are too high in the South End … I think it’s still hard for a buyer to find a suitable property. There are few one-bedroom normal sized units for sale for under $450k, for example.

8. John A Keith
   Comment by John A Keith | 02/25/08 at 10:40 am

   And, yes, Penmark has not sold anywhere near what you would expect, assume, or hope, at this point.

9. jules
   Comment by jules | 03/18/08 at 10:46 am

   John

   As the spring time is coming soon, do you have any expectations for how the reals estate market will shape out in the South End. You noted above that South End does NOT have too much inventory (which could be a good thing if you are selling), bu how much does that fluctuate in the warmer months? What is the best time to sell - considering you want to “get ahead” of the summer “rush”

   -Jules

10. John A Keith
    Comment by John A Keith | 03/18/08 at 1:07 pm

    Hello.

    I think we’ll have a strong spring market. Most of the sales activity in the South End, Back Bay, and Beacon Hill happen in the spring. Then, in the fall, but not half as much.

    If you are selling this spring, put your property on the market by April 1. Buyers, for sure, will want to have their purchase wrapped up by Memorial Day - many would love to have the closing prior to that, but as long as the property is under agreement by then, many buyers will be happy. No buyer wants to have to move mid-summer.

    I think the sales volume will be about what it was last year, which is strong.

11. Johnnie
    Comment by Johnnie | 05/24/08 at 8:26 pm

    Hey John, with the economy in the shape it’s in and the housing crisis which seems like its never going to end, you really think sales will be even close the what they were last year?

12. John A Keith
    Comment by John A Keith | 05/24/08 at 9:14 pm

    Sales volume or average / median sales price?

    Sales volume: 2008: 168 sales; 2007: 213 sales; 2006: 186 sales; 2005: 199 sales.

    All from MLSPIN.

    Sales volume will be down, but average / median sales prices will remain about the same, in my opinion. So far, through 4 1/2 months, this is true.

    median 2008: $590,000
    median 2007: $550,000
    median 2006: $512,500
    median 2005: $487,500

    2005 median: Actually, a unit I sold, at 492 Mass Ave, #73, $487,000, two bed, 1 bath, 830 square feet.

    2008 median: 2 bed, 1 bath penthouse unit on West Canton, 778 square feet,

    Would the 2005 median-sale property sell for what the 2008 median-sale property got? No. So, the comparison is of limited relevance.

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