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Your guess, as good as mine

What caused the fall-off in condo sales and prices over the past year?

* Higher interest rates cut into borrowing power of entry-level buyers
* Tighter lending rules cut off access to funds for buyers
* High inventory levels (this one doesn’t make sense)
* No more buyers - anyone who wanted to buy, bought
* Domino effect - owners couldn’t find buyers, so couldn’t buy new homes, which meant other owners had no buyers, so they couldn’t buy new homes, etc., etc., etc.
*
* Common sense on part of buyers - they’ve had enough of high prices
* economy - fears of losing jobs, etc., led people to stay where they are, rather than move
* the level of sales volume in 2005 and the price hike between 2004 - 2005 was an aberration, it was not sustainable, and what we see now in 2007 is the return to norm, get used to it

Keep in mind, a lot of people are sitting on a boatload of equity in their homes, even though prices have dropped (by single-percentages) and sales volume by 25%. Most of that appreciation is here to stay, if they bought prior to 2003-2004.

Those who are in trouble are only those who need to sell right now, and bought at the height of the market.

They’ve only owned two years, anyway, so why would they think they should be able to make a profit on their sales?

Thoughts?

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4 Responses to “Your guess, as good as mine” »»

  1. Comment by Chris | 06/28/07 at 11:13 am

    I

    pretty much agree. Even though it worked very well for a few years there, people should not buy

    with the intent of making a big profit in a short time. Those days are gone. Find a home you

    like, you feel comfortable with the price that you can afford, in a nice area and you should be

    safe. I don’t think it has to be over 5 years, but you should stay at least 3 to feel safe about

    your investment. You may not make a lot but at least you are building some equity and most

    importantly, to me anyway, enjoying the benefits of being a homeowner.

  2. Comment by Cara dB | 06/28/07 at 11:38 am

    Did you see this article on Salon about subprime loans and their effect on interest rates,

    building and

    foreclosure?

    http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2007/06/27/subprime_cdos/index.html

  3. Comment by Atlanta Realtor | 06/28/07 at 2:46 pm

    cool website.

  4. Comment by Rob Beland | 06/28/07 at 4:55 pm

    I don’t know about the Boston market but in my area I think fall off in condo sales is due in

    part to the fact that detached homes have come down in price so much. Condos were hot a few years

    ago which sent the prices through the roof even though they were still affordable as compared to

    single family homes. Now that gap is getting smaller and the condos aren’t looking like good

    deals. Unfortunately so many were being built that now developers are stuck with inventory that

    they have to sell off at deep discounts.

    I remember four or five years ago when condo

    developments were being built in phases and the units in the first phase would sell out and then by

    the time the third phase was being built the first phase of condos were already on the resale

    market with huge profits. I feel bad for the people that bought into that frenzy. These people are

    sitting on condos they paid $300K + for that are maybe worth $225K now…

    I also subscribe

    to the back to the norm theory…those days of skyrocketing prices are gone and the market we are

    in now has leveled off for a while. I’m not saying we won’t see that spike again but it will be a

    while.

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