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My name is John A Keith. I am a real estate broker in Boston. Along with my team of agents, I help buyers and sellers of homes throughout Boston, including the South End, Back Bay, and Beacon Hill neighborhoods.

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Trust this man. Everything he says about real estate is true

Oomph. Lots of stories to post today. I’ll have to take a break after this, and post the rest tomorrow.

Never go on vacation!

PIMCO bond giant founder Bill Gross writes a monthly Investment Outlook column, and lately, at least, he discusses the real estate market, or, more accurately, the bond market, which affects the interest rates on our mortgage loans.

He seems to have a pretty good grasp on things (I would hope so!).

Here’s what he thinks, these days (emphasis, mine):

PIMCO has observed that the weakness in the housing market this year is understated and that prices in many local markets are actually declining.

2nd quarter GDP results are to be announced today and it is expected to show a fairly sharp decline in the annualized rate (although still healthy), from 5.6% in the 1st quarter, to around 2.5% in the 2nd quarter. Consensus says that GDP will continue to fall through the end of the year, one of the clearest signs that the housing market is cooling our jets.

A weaker economy will stop the Fed tightening and may be forced to begin reducing rates in 2007 because the Fed has overshot their target. PIMCO believes that mortgage rates will fall as a result.

This doesn’t mean another real estate boom, however, rather this would more likely be help to shore up the damage to the housing market caused by rising rates which in turn weakened the economy. In housing markets not in bad shape, for example those with low speculative activity, could see a modest recovery.

Or, as many others have said, the bubble won’t burst, but deflate.

Even if you wish for lower housing prices, you should be worrying that the cooling real estate market will bring down our nation’s economy.

If this occurred, it wouldn’t be good, for any of us.

Source: The End of History and the Last Bond Bull Market - By Bill Gross, PIMCO

Story courtesy of: Bond Market May Have Bottomed Out (Mortgage Rates May Have Topped Out) - By Jonathan J Miller, Matrix

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One Response to “Trust this man. Everything he says about real estate is true” »»

  1. Comment by Mike | 07/31/06 at 5:38 pm

    John,

    PIMCO has also been doing some original research on their own for some

    time now on the housing market. Here is a link to an interview with Scott Simon, one of their

    managing directors. He answers some questions on the specifics of the original research they are

    doing which includes sending out analysts to do ride alongs in major housing markets to get true

    color on what the market is

    doing.

    http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Product+Focus/2005/MBS-+Scott+Simon+Interview.htm

    nPIMCO has always done very well as fixed income managers and you can be sure that they are always

    doing whatever they can to get the best information and knowing what is taking place in the real

    estate market helps them gage what types of things could be occuring in the bond market.

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