In the fall, 2006, several large condo complexes will be completed - 360 Newbury and The InterContinental, in Boston, and One First, in Cambridge.

If these projects do open, as scheduled, you’ll see a lot of closings, in the fourth quarter.

These closings may skew the data, showing a spike in the average and median sales prices of condos.

The closings may also give us a hint as to the health of the local real estate market, as a whole. The developers of the InterContinental, for example, keep saying that they have 80 of their 130 units under agreement. Is this true? We’ll only be able to tell for sure, once people start closing.

If we see fewer closings than expected, the condo market could be facing more trouble, over the next several quarters. Not only will these projects be increasing the available inventory, they will soon be facing increased competition, as other large condo complexes are completed, next year.

As reported in the Globe:

Working with Pam McKinney of Byrne McKinney & Associates, a real estate consulting firm, [Kevin] Ahearn just completed a market analysis that estimates that between 2004 and 2008, 3,979 condominiums will have been built in many Boston and East Cambridge neighborhoods; 60 percent have been purchased or reserved.

More information: Downtown condo sales drop 12% - By Chris Reidy, The Boston Globe

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